Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
